The Polls are in Dangerous Territory
By TERRY LYONS @terrylyons
Do you trust The Polls?
Any kind of poll?
Do you trust the College sports (football or hoops) rankings, or - dare we say it aloud - political polling?
We all know where the 2016 Presidential election polls placed us, don’t we? In utter hell. Broken clocks fared better than the pundits of nightly news polls of November 2016.
They all claim accuracy within (+/- 3 points) but picture a NASA rocket scientist settling for pinpoint accuracy for a navigational burn. “Eh, if it’s Plus-Minus three degrees, we ‘oughta be good, right?”
The American Association of Public Research has been reeling since the pollsters miscalculated so poorly back in ‘16. Until this day, they’re not quite sure what happened, although strange influences from Moscow to Siberia seem to have played a significant role.
What would we do if our trusty Kremlin-backed Comrades Vladimir, Boris and Natasha were to mess with the AP College Football polls? That would be cause and an act of war, especially if the Congressional delegations of Alabama, South Carolina and Texas had any say in the matter or if Army or Navy were unfairly ranked.
Making matters worse in collegiate football, there are two dueling polls, The AP Poll and the College Football Coaches Poll. Surely partisanship and politics plays a role with those casting votes in both of those rankings.
In this messy 2020 college football season we have some serious anomalies with the fact The Ohio State University is ranked 5th and they have yet to play a game. Same with Penn State at No. 8 with that undefeated and untied (0-0) record. Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and USC - all the same with the Big 10 just getting around to play this week and the PAC-12 awaiting November 7.
Who knows? Maybe Coastal Carolina can kick the USC Trojans’ ass?
Florida is Top 10 and they’re (2-1), ranked ahead of four or five undefeated teams, including SMU and BYU. Maybe they’re against any team with “U” in the name?
Maybe some of the Ivy League schools should be ranked, simply for being smart enough not to play in this godforsaken year.
There are polls to assist in the determination of the CFP (College Football Playoffs). There’s polls for the Frozen Four and Final Four. Doesn’t it make you wonder why Quinnipiac doesn’t fare better in the college ice hockey polls?
In fact, college basketball seems to fare much better than the rest. Although its preseason No. 1 and subsequent replacements get upset as the season progresses, the Top 10 in collegiate hoops usually finds its way to the tournament’s “Sweet 16,” unless up-ended by some crazy buzzer-beater.
Politics? … “Fuh’geddaboudit.”
Beware of their buzzword, but the geniuses at Five Thirty Eight say “don’t buy the ‘narrative’ that “polling is broken.”
Let’s say it more clearly and accurately, then …
Exit polls are useless, simply because people lie.
Job approvals/disapprovals = Useless
Direction of Country polls = Beyond useless
This year, with the most devastating public health crisis in 100 years, 40 States facing record number of COVID+ cases and growing numbers of hospitalizations, massive unemployment and job eliminations, record numbers of people needing unemployment insurance paychecks and food stamps, do you know a current Politico/Morning Consult poll shows 36% of the people believe the country is heading in the RIGHT DIRECTION?
What?
When you zero-in on some of the other categories, it only gets more ridiculous, although Five Thirty Eight claims to look for the polling averages, not any one poll.
Bringing the two concepts together, what would you think if 36% of the 1973 Louisiana-Lafayette fans thought their 0-10 football team was heading in the right direction? For now, do you think UMass is heading onward and upward this 2020 season?
Polls can be manipulated. Polls can slice-off small and misleading segments to benefit a point-of-view. Polls are fundamentally a wild guess.
Associated Press Top 25 Poll - (link)
(Rank, School, Points, Previous Rank, Record)
1 Clemson (54) 1,542 1 5-0
2 Alabama (8) 1,494 2 4-0
3 Notre Dame 1,337 4 4-0
4 Georgia 1,300 3 3-1
5 Ohio State 1,223 6 0-0
6 Oklahoma State 1,137 7 3-0
7 Texas A&M 1,054 11 3-1
8 Penn State 1,033 9 0-0
9 Cincinnati 1,028 8 3-0
10 Florida 942 10 2-1
11 Miami (Fla.) 887 13 4-1
12 BYU 875 14 5-0
13 Oregon 841 12 0-0
T-14 North Carolina 677 5 3-1
T-14 Wisconsin 677 16 0-0
16 SMU 638 17 5-0
17 Iowa State 511 20 3-1
18 Michigan 489 19 0-0
19 Virginia Tech 411 23 3-1
20 Kansas State 399 22 3-1
21 Minnesota 234 24 0-0
22 Marshall 227 NR 4-0
23 North Carolina State 199 NR 4-1
24 Southern Cal 192 25 0-0
25 Coastal Carolina 185 NR 4-0
Others receiving votes: Memphis 76, Oklahoma 74, Tulsa 58, West Virginia 57, Auburn 48, Iowa 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 40, Liberty 37, Utah 36, UAB 30, Army 29, Arkansas 15, Air Force 14, Kentucky 12, Tennessee 11, Virginia 9, Arizona State 9, Washington 8, South Carolina 8, Indiana 4, Texas 1
A Different Take
A slightly different look is done by the “Boys in Vegas,” and we all know how good they are with setting points spreads, over/unders, and generally predicting the future. They have The Ohio State University at No. 3, as opposed to No. 5.
On the contrary, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are No. 10 in Vegas and No. 3 by the AP. The obvious conclusion with that?
Take notice!
Current Vegas Power Ratings:
1. Clemson 139.14
2. Alabama 137.96
3. Ohio State 137.95
4. Georgia 131.95
5. Penn St 128.45
6. Florida 127.44
7. Wisconsin 125.75
8. Oklahoma 124.41
9. Texas A&M 123.84
10. Notre Dame 123.64
